Welcome to the HERO Sports FCS Mailbag. In partnership with FCS Football Fans Nation, we will ask for questions with a post on their Facebook page every Sunday and our FCS crew of Brian McLaughlin, Chase Kiddy and Sam Herder will give in-depth answers with these Thursday articles. They will also choose the best question and discuss it on the FCS Podcast that comes out Wednesday mornings.
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Brandon Owens – Who is more likely to lose this weekend, Colgate or Maine?
Chase: Vegas says Colgate. The Raiders opened up as 4-point underdogs, and that line is now up above a touchdown because JMU is a public team. (Maine opened as a 3-point dog, and the line hasn't moved.) I think there's a case to make for Maine, but I'm having trouble fully getting behind a team from Jacksonville, Alabama winning a game in December in Maine.
Sam: I'll say Maine. Before the Mike Houston stuff I said JMU-Colgate is a 50/50 game. I still believe it's 50/50. And I think JSU has a more than 50 percent chance of beating Maine. Going off of what Chase said about the cold, I'm not sure how much it'll impact JSU. The Gamecocks are always pretty good up the middle of their defense, and their running game on offense can get it done with Jaelen Greene.
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Adam Willey – What did you think of the performances by the teams that most people didn’t think would win? Like Duquesne and SEMO.
Brian: I love it. I love "new blood" in the discussion and these two programs earned it. Duquesne is always in the mix for the NEC title and the FCS Playoff berth. It's been three years since it happened, so the Dukes had waited long enough. And SEMO? The Redhawks hadn't been factors in years and have gone from four to nine wins this year. Both are great stories.
Chase: I thought the Duquesne win in particular was impressive. The Dukes are offensively gifted, but I really thought the defense would struggle against an offense like Towson's. I get that the weather was pretty bad here in the DMV, but I'm still pretty shocked Towson got shut out after halftime. Even if it got an assist from Mother Nature, that's still a really impressive performance from Duquesne, and they deserve all the credit in the world for that.
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Paul Alexander Dobson – Which losing team's performance surprised you the most?
Brian: Probably Towson's. It just didn't add up to what we'd been seeing much of the year. Of course, the crazy weather in Maryland didn't help.
Chase: Again, I'll stick with Towson. I'm surprised that the Tigers lost, but it's straight-up shocking that they did so while only scoring 10 points. I think everything else from the first round was fairly normal, if not outright predictable.
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Nick Daly – Which seed(s) is most likely to fall this weekend?
Brian: I'll go with the wishy-washy answer Nick and go with the three games I think are 50/50 — Maine, Colgate and Kennesaw all have tough ones Saturday.
Sam: I have Colgate and Maine losing this weekend.
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Cody Chathams – Who is your round 1 MVP? Offense and Defense?
Sam: I'll do one better and show you our MVPs from each first-round game. That can be found here.
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Matthew Fraase – Who’s most likely to get the round 2 of death that the CAA received by losing in Round 1? The CAA again, the Missouri Valley, the Big Sky, or the Ohio Valley?
Brian: I think most likely? It may be the OVC. Both teams (Jacksonville State and SEMO) remaining have very tough long trips ahead of them, but they certainly were the story of weekend No. 1.
Chase: At this point, I wouldn't be all that surprised if there were zero CAA teams left in the playoffs at the beginning of next week.
Sam: There's definitely a chance both OVC teams can lose Saturday. And it wouldn't shock me if both CAA teams lose as well.
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Colby Geil – In the matchup between KSU and Wofford, whose option do you think will prevail? Will one outrun the other or will both offenses get shut down, forcing both teams to run (see what if did there?) other plays?
Brian: I honestly think they'll cancel each other out. Yep, I said it. I think they'll both find moderate success, and it'll be one big play or one big mistake that settles it. I can't see this being more than a 7-point margin win for either team, and trust me — both can win this one.
Chase: From what I've watched, Kennesaw runs a more hybridized option, so I would project that the greater offensive options available for Chandler Burks gives the Owls an edge.
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Richard Dean – What's the key for Colgate to pull out a win (many would say an upset) against JMU? Flipside what's our offense have to do get it done against that impressive Colgate defense.
Brian: Colgate needs to be nearly perfect Saturday — but here's the thing, I think they will be. This is a senior dominated team, with several key guys who played big roles in the 2015 upset at Bridgeforth. They're hungry to prove that the doubters don't have a clue about Colgate football — trust me, I've talked to them. The JMU offense needs to find itself, because this Colgate defense is no joke.
Chase: I think the key for the entire JMU-Colgate game will be how effectively the Raiders can pass the ball. Colgate has an extremely effective run game, but it draws a really tough matchup with JMU's defensive front. Madison's game plan is going to be to clog up the box and challenge the Raiders to beat them throwing the ball, which is something they haven't done a whole lot of this year. Colgate is efficient when it passes the ball, but in terms of gross production, it ranks outside the Top 100 FCS teams.
For JMU, it needs to take advantage of its superior athleticism and win 1-on-1 matchups. That could be DiNucci beating a linebacker on a scramble, or it could be receivers beating safeties. Colgate is well-coached and well-trained, so JMU has virtually zero chance of winning this game merely by not losing it. The Dukes will have to be the better team on the field, and that usually means making highlight plays.
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Mark Klug – JMU is only starting one senior on offense and one on defense. Do you think they have the game experience to make a deep run……or has that been the major factor in the mistakes and lack of execution the last few games?
Chase: Houston himself told me last week about how much older and wiser this team is, at least compared to preseason camp. I think JMU's chances of success are less about team maturity and more about the path in front of them. (Obviously, we can throw Charlotte-based team distractions into the mix now, too.)
Frankly, I'm just not sure anyone can beat this North Dakota State team. If JMU makes it to next weekend's game, I do think its athleticism and overall talent gives them a better chance than most, but it's still a tall task.
Sam: This question was asked Monday, but it's still very relevant because of the Houston situation. You never know how a younger team reacts to this kind of thing. It can play motivated or uninspired. It can be focused in practice or distracted. It can trust the game plan or believe the coach's heart isn't into it. The Dukes are a young team, and there's a difference between 23-year-old starters understanding the business of college sports and 20-21-year-old starters feeling like they're getting screwed.
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Bruce Edmiston – Which dark horse team has a legitimate chance to play in Frisco?
Brian: It's funny Bruce, I'd say any team other than NDSU is a darkhorse. But I know what you're asking, so let's go with any team not seeded in the Top 4 as the criteria. Hey, let's go with SDSU. They played NDSU pretty darned well, and if the Jackrabbits got rolling, you never know. But again, this would definitely be a shock.
Chase: I think Jacksonville State could be an interesting choice here because of the defensive talent, but honestly, I think this will be a very chalky playoff. I think it would take something pretty incredible for the Bison to lose short of the Finals, and I think the other semifinal will be a Weber-EWU rematch.
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Cory Clark – What does Montana State have to do to beat NDSU?
Chase: Montana State can totally win this game. Hear me out.
The polar ice caps are melting, injecting freezing cold water into the oceans. That could create a climatological catastrophe, inducing a random, inconveniently timed super-storm that descends over North America. Fortunately, the Fargodome is built to handle supernaturally cold temperatures, so Montana State's entire football program decides it will just sleep inside the Dome on the grass the night before kickoff to definitively avoid the storm. On Saturday, when it's finally time to play, Head Coach Chris Klieman and Assistant Coach Dennis Quaid realize the storm has arrived, and none of the players can make it to the stadium. Klieman and Quaid venture out into the elements to find their players, including Easton Stick, who for some reason looks a lot like Jake Gyllenhaal. The players are eventually rescued, but North Dakota State must forfeit the game because the team couldn't make it to the Fargodome. Montana State wins!
Sam: Well…I caught a pretty bad flu earlier this week that's going around Fargo. Maybe that's hit the entire NDSU locker room. But I don't think that's the case.
Look, the Bobcats are going to have to play like a movie writer wrote the script to this game (I think that's what Chase just did) while hoping the Bison have an off day. It wouldn't surprise me if it's 10-7, 7-7 or even 7-0 MSU at some point in the first quarter. The Bobcats can throw some wrinkles with their assortment of athletes who can play multiple offensive positions. But the Bison will adjust, like they always. MSU just needs to keep it competitive until the fourth quarter and see what happens from there. The game plan to beat NDSU really isn't difficult – stop the run, take away one WR, be physical and multidimensional on offense with your QB able to make plays with his feet. Actually doing it is a completely different animal.
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