On Wednesday afternoon, three days before Alabama was scheduled to host Georgia, Alabama was a 6.5-point favorite in the blockbuster game of the season. After news of Nick Saban’s positive COVID test put his status for the game in doubt, oddsmakers reacted with a two-point drop, putting the Crimson Tide as 4.5-point favorites.
The Nick Saban factor, in this case and at that moment, was worth two points, though that might’ve increased in the hours leading up to Saturday’s kickoff if Saban officially announced he won’t be on the sideline. (Alabama announced on Friday afternoon Saban received two negative tests and was awaiting a third test before announcing a status for Saturday.) The Les Miles factor, meanwhile, is worth 1.5 points…in the other direction.
On Oct. 8, five days after Kansas dropped to 0-3 with a blowout loss to Oklahoma State, Miles announced a positive COVID test, becoming the first Big 12 head coach to test positive. Miles didn’t miss a game (with Kansas on bye in Week 6) and his 10-day quarantine ended on Friday. However, the Jayhawks’ second-year coach won’t travel to West Virginia for Saturday’s game, the school announced on Friday.
“There is too much still unknown about this virus for me to feel 100% confident that I won’t transmit it to someone who comes into close contact with me on the team charter, hotel or at the game Saturday,” Miles said in a statement. “As we continue to work our way through this pandemic, nothing is more important than the health and safety of our players, coaches and staff that make up this great team. As the head coach, it is up to me to set the right example for our student-athletes, and that is what I am doing with this decision by not traveling with the team.”
Prior to the announcement, West Virginia was a 22.5-point favorite at Westgate Superbook. Hours later, West Virginia is now a 21-point favorite. While there could be other factors at play, bettors’ strong reaction to Miles’ absence forced oddsmakers to move the line 1.5 points in Kansas’ favor. Defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot will serve as acting head coach.
No head coach, better odds.
For a program who won an FBS-worst 21 games last decade and hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2009, there aren’t many surprises left. Oddsmakers managed to find one in Week 7.
