Week 10 of the 2024 FCS season features only one ranked matchup, but several more with intriguing implications.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 62-19
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 10 Top 5 Games
No. 23 ETSU at No. 12 Mercer
I took some flak last week for keeping Mercer in my Top 10 after its 55-35 loss at Samford. Yes, although four turnovers led to 28 Samford points and Samford scored two defensive touchdowns, it was still an ugly loss. Yet Mercer’s overall body of work stacked up well compared to many FCS teams.
The Bears added to that body of work last Saturday when it defeated No. 24 WCU. Mercer is now 7-1 overall/vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win. It appears the committee likes Mercer as well, ranking the Bears No. 8 this week.
Mercer looks to add another ranked win vs. ETSU. The Bucs are 5-3 overall with four D1 wins. They’ll need to win their final four games to for sure reach the playoffs while winning three of the four still gives them a shot at the bracket.
Mercer has been susceptible against the pass in the last two games. But its rushing defense has been stout, ranking No. 1 in the FCS with 59.5 yards allowed per game. ETSU wants to establish the run first. But the Bucs will need to attack Mercer through the air to win. Jaylen King has had ups and downs this year, totaling 1,323 passing yards on a 53.1 completion percentage with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions.
This is a good matchup for Mercer to grab a home win.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
Prediction: Mercer 31-21
No. 18 Chattanooga at Western Carolina
Two teams I still have ranked in my Top 25 ballot.
WCU is close to dropping out of my ballot at 4-4 overall. The Catamounts are struggling to put together four full quarters. They jumped up 17-0 at No. 10 Montana before losing 46-35. Last week saw an early 14-0 lead on No. 14 Mercer before losing 44-34. Standout QB Cole Gonzales suffered what looked like another injury to his non-throwing shoulder late in the Mercer game. His status is uncertain.
Chattanooga, meanwhile, seems to be flying under many people’s radars. If Mercer is ranked near the Top 10, Chattanooga shouldn’t be far behind. Chattanooga has won 5 straight and is now 5-3 overall and 5-1 vs. the FCS. The lone FCS loss was a one-score game against Mercer, and the Mocs also had a one-possession loss to FBS Georgia State. They own a ranked win over ETSU. And since that ETSU victory, Chattanooga has won its last three games 41-10, 37-5, and 31-10.
The Mocs are showing why they were No. 1 in the SoCon preseason poll, led by QB Chase Artopoeus and DL Marlon Taylor.
WCU won a 52-50 thriller last year over the Mocs. Expect some fireworks again, but Chattanooga’s stronger defense will be the difference, generating one or two key stops in the second half.
Prediction: Chattanooga 38-35
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UT Martin at No. 25 Tennessee State
A key game in the Big South-OVC.
Both squads are 3-1 in the conference standings. UT Martin is 5-3 overall and 5-2 vs. the FCS with an FBS win over Kennesaw State. TN State is 6-2 overall/vs. the FCS, winning four straight. The Tigers are 3-0 at home.
It should be a fun QB battle. TN State’s Draylen Ellis has thrown for 1,772 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. UT Martin’s Kinkead Dent has thrown for 1,158 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Dent’s play will be key down the stretch for UT Martin to put itself in a position for an at-large bid. In the last three games, he has passed for just over 600 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions while rushing for four scores.
Prediction: UT Martin 31-24
No. 2 Montana State at Eastern Washington
EWU is 2-6, but the Eagles have had tight games with ranked Big Sky teams Montana, UC Davis, and Idaho.
Coming off of a bye week, it’s a key game for MSU. The Cats should win. Yet many FCS teams have had off games, which could be consequential on Selection Sunday.
MSU looks to be on a mission with a business-like attitude after an up-and-down 2023 season. The nation’s No. 2 rushing attack gets another boost with the return of Julius Davis, last year’s top running back with 718 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. The combo of Davis, Scottre Humphrey (952 yards, 10 TDs this fall), and Walter Payton Award candidate Tommy Mellott in the backfield behind arguably the best FCS o-line is a scary thought.
MSU’s No. 1 FCS scoring offense (41.6 PPG) should find plenty of success on an EWU defense that is allowing 38.1 points per game.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: Montana State 41-24
Towson at No. 16 Richmond
An entertaining finish is coming in the CAA as multiple teams are jockeying for the conference title/auto-bid and some at-large bids.
Rhody and Richmond are 4-0 in league play, while Delaware (playoff-ineligible), Stony Brook, and Villanova have one loss.
Richmond has been on a heater, winning six straight after an 0-2 start, including handing Delaware its first loss of the season. Towson sits at 4-4 overall and 2-2 in CAA play. But the Tigers are a scary out. They nearly beat then-No. 5 Villanova, pushed No. 2 NDSU, and beat then-No. 10 William & Mary.
Richmond is led by its strong defense, which ranks No. 12 in the FCS, allowing 17.6 points per game. Carter Glassmyer leads the unit with 49 tackles, six TFLs, and two sacks. Jeremiah Grant has been a force on the d-line, totaling 29 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, and 8.5 sacks.
The Spiders keep it rolling on their Homecoming, continuing to push itself into the conversation for a first-round playoff bye.
Prediction: Richmond 28-21
More FCS Predictions
Monmouth at No. 14 Rhode Island
Prediction: Rhody 31-27
Southern Utah at No. 17 Abilene Christian
Prediction: SUU 34-31
Eastern Kentucky at No. 7 Tarleton State
Prediction: Tarleton State 35-31
Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls
Prediction: SFA 31-21
No. 15 North Dakota at Indiana State
Prediction: UND 31-24
No. 13 Villanova at Hampton
Prediction: Nova 28-24
Youngstown State at No. 21 Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State 28-21
