Week 12 of the 2024 FCS season features three ranked matchups. With just two more games until Selection Sunday, the implications continue to grow.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 81-25
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 12 Top 5 Games
No. 2 Montana State at No. 4 UC Davis
Dubbed the biggest game in UC Davis football history, expect a crowd beyond capacity as the No. 4 Aggies host No. 2 Montana State. The winner will have a great shot at a Top 2 playoff seed and coveted home-field advantage as long as they beat their rival in Week 13.
I’ve been on the fence about this game all week.
On the one hand, I’ve been on the MSU wagon all fall saying the Cats look capable of winning a national title and can go 12-0 in the regular season. The defense has raised its level of play, ranking No. 9 in FCS total defense (290 yards per game) and No. 7 in scoring defense (16.5 PPG). The offense is arguably the best in the FCS, leading the country with 42.4 PPG and 333 rushing yards per game. Scottre Humphrey has 1,191 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, while last year’s leading rusher Julius Davis is just getting back into the lineup for the first time. Tommy Mellott is in the Walter Payton Award conversation, throwing for 1,688 yards, 19 touchdowns, and one interception, plus 586 yards and 10 scores on the ground.
On the other hand, UC Davis has proved me wrong in two ranked matchups, beating Idaho and Montana. The front seven looks stout enough to at least slow down MSU’s rushing attack and force the Cats into throwing situations. UC Davis allows just 118.3 rushing yards per game. Cal Poly transfer LB David Meyer looks to add another All-Big Sky honor as he leads Davis with 88 tackles, including 6.5 TFLs and three interceptions. Zach Kennedy is a great talent on the edge, while Rex and Porter Connors are playmakers against the run and the pass.
Offensively, UC Davis is talented and creative in scheming up defenses. Lan Larison has 1,061 yards rushing and 10 TDs while leading the team with 46 catches for 577 yards and six scores. Miles Hastings is playing the best ball of his career and is also in the Walter Payton Award discussion. He has thrown for 3,027 yards, 26 touchdowns, and six interceptions. There could be mismatches in taking advantage of MSU’s linebackers and safeties in pass coverage.
But at this point in the year, play in the trenches can be the difference. And I think MSU has the edge on both sides of the ball. I’ll stick to my guns and say MSU finishes the regular season 12-0.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
Prediction: Montana State 35-31
No. 14 Abilene Christian at No. 13 Tarleton State
ACU is 7-3 overall, 7-2 vs. the FCS with one ranked win over Central Arkansas, and 6-1 in UAC play. Tarleton State is 8-2 overall, 8-1 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins, and 5-1 in league play.
Both squads have underwhelming losses on their resumes, Tarleton losing 17-13 at home to EKU and ACU losing 47-34 at North Alabama. You can either point to parity in the UAC or just week-to-week inconsistency. But it’s no doubt one of the toughest conferences to try and predict.
Abilene Christian has played more consistently offensively. The Wildcats are scoring 36.4 points per game, which is 11th in the FCS. While Maverick McIvor (3,213 yards passing, 25 TDs, 5 INT) and his targets get plenty of attention, ACU’s rushing attack provides a nice balance. Sam Hicks has rushed for 849 yards and 10 TDs, and Isaiah Johnson has added 607 yards and 11 scores.
Tarleton’s offense, for how talented it is, is only scoring 28.6 points per game. Kayvon Britten is a top-tier running back, rushing for 1,495 yards and 15 touchdowns this fall. The passing attack has been choppy recently, though. Victor Gabalis has thrown for 1,618 yards, 10 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He has two three-interception games in the last three weeks.
I’ll roll with the better quarterback play in this one.
Prediction: Abilene Christian 34-31
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No. 14 Missouri State (Coaches Poll) at No. 1 NDSU
Missouri State’s time in the FCS has been mostly forgettable. But it can leave a lasting impression in its final two games as an FCS program, going to No. 1 NDSU this week before hosting No. 3 SDSU.
The Bears are 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS (loss at Montana). They have two wins over teams currently ranked (UT Martin, Illinois State). Mo State is not eligible for the playoffs or to be voted on in the Media Poll, but it can be ranked in the Coaches Poll because it is still at the 63-scholarship FCS limit.
NDSU, meanwhile, is in the hunt for a Top 2 playoff seed at 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins (ETSU, Illinois State, SDSU).
It’s an interesting matchup. Mo State can score and sling it around, averaging 38.8 points per game (No. 2 in the FCS). Jacob Clark is in the Walter Payton Award mix, throwing for 3,171 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Jacardia Wright adds some balance to the offense, rushing for 740 yards and 13 scores.
NDSU’s defense ranks No. 4 in points allowed (15.7 PPG). Its passing defense has been fine, allowing 194.4 yards per game to rank 38th. The Bison are without their two starting safeties from last season. Sam Jung is out for the year with an injury and All-American Cole Wisniewski has yet to play this fall, although he could be nearing a return soon.
Mo State may get some points, but I don’t think its defense stacks up well in this one. The Bears have allowed 42 points to Northern Iowa and 31 to Murray State in recent weeks. NDSU’s offense is rolling, scoring 37.8 points per game. Cam Miller is the Walter Payton Award frontrunner, throwing for 2,011 yards, 18 touchdowns, and zero interceptions while rushing for 267 yards and six TDs.
NDSU’s defense settles in while the offense doesn’t see much resistance in this one.
Prediction: NDSU 42-28
No. 16 Stony Brook at New Hampshire
It feels about that time for chaos to ensue in the CAA. If things went chalk in these final two weeks, the conference could have four 10-win teams. But after some near upsets recently, it seems some underdogs are going to hit.
Stony Brook is currently 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. UNH is still in the playoff hunt at 6-4 overall and 6-3 vs. the FCS. The Wildcats have to win out to get into the bracket at 8-4, and they go to Maine next week.
UNH has started to heat up down the stretch. After a 14-6 loss to ranked Villanova, the Wildcats have beaten UAlbany 31-14 and Monmouth 33-20. Seth Morgan, a former standout at VMI, has thrown for 1,884 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions. The defense is led by multi-time All-American Josiah Silver, who has 53 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, and 11.5 sacks.
Stony Brook keeps on winning, but the Seawolves have one-score wins over Fordham, Campbell, and Bryant. The offense goes through Roland Dempster, who has rushed for 1,152 yards and 18 touchdowns. Tyler Knoop has been efficient at QB, throwing for 1,419 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
A home game for a team in desperation mode to reach the postseason has me leaning UNH.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: UNH 28-24
No. 6 UIW at Stephen F. Austin
UIW needs some statement wins to help get into the Top 8 playoff seeds. The Cardinals were ranked No. 9 by the playoff committee in late October, and No. 6 SEMO has since suffered a bad loss to Lindenwood, which may drop them out of the Top 8. UIW is 8-2 overall/vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over Northern Arizona.
SFA’s playoff hopes are still alive at 6-4 overall, but it only has five D1 wins. If the Lumberjacks earn back-to-back ranked wins over UIW and Abilene Christian, they would have a good argument for a playoff bid. But last week’s 19-14 loss at East Texas A&M doesn’t provide much confidence. Plus, standout QB Sam Vidlak (2,387 yards, 27 TDs, 4 INT) isn’t expected to play.
UIW’s offense has been humming, scoring 55, 30, 34, 45, and 41 points against Southland opponents. The Cardinals are averaging 37.9 points per game, ranking No. 3 in the FCS. Zach Calzada leads the subdivision with 29 passing touchdowns and is No. 7 in passing yards (2,813). Jalen Walthall (996 yards, 13 TDs) and Roy Alexander (813 yards, 10 TDs) are supremely talented guys on the outside.
Without Vidlak, SFA won’t have the firepower to knock off UIW. But its defense (allowing 16.8 PPG) will have a spirited effort to keep SFA in the ball game.
Prediction: UIW 28-21
More FCS Predictions
No. 11 Richmond at Hampton
Prediction: Richmond 31-27
Wagner at No. 22 Duquesne
Prediction: Duquense 24-14
Colgate at Lehigh
Prediction: Lehigh 21-14
Furman at No. 21 ETSU
Prediction: ETSU 34-17
No. 9 Villanova at Monmouth
Prediction: Monmouth 31-28
Morehead State at Drake
Prediction: Drake 27-14
No. 5 South Dakota at North Dakota
Prediction: USD 45-24
Portland State at No. 10 Montana
Prediction: Montana 34-28
Southern Utah at No. 24 Central Arkansas
Prediction: SUU 28-21
Weber State at No. 8 Idaho
Prediction: Idaho 31-17
