Week 9 of the 2024 FCS season features two ranked matchups.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 53-19
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 9 Top 5 Games
No. 4 South Dakota at No. 3 South Dakota State
Last week’s showdown between No. 1 SDSU and No. 2 NDSU was the most anticipated regular-season game in recent memory. Saturday’s matchup in Brookings may not be as anticipated nationally, but it is equally intriguing.
Is South Dakota, who has looked the part so far this year, ready to jump into the top tier alongside SDSU, NDSU, and Montana State? What happens if SDSU loses? How far does it drop? Or can the Jackrabbits recover from the NDSU loss and show that it was just a one-time performance filled with miscues and make a statement with a big win over the Coyotes?
The narratives will be strong no matter the result.
Both teams have talented running back rooms and own solid offensive lines. But they’ll go up against strong rushing defenses. SDSU owns the No. 7 FCS rushing defense (99.4 yards allowed per game) while USD is No. 12 (106.7 YPG).
The quarterbacks will need to make plays when they face several obvious passing situations on third down. USD’s Aidan Bouman is the No. 4-graded FCS quarterback on PFF, throwing for 1,393 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. Mark Gronowski is No. 94, passing for 1,221 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Gronowski and his pass-catchers have been inconsistent. The passing game showed explosiveness in a two-game stretch vs. Oklahoma State and UIW. It wasn’t good in the next two games against Augustana and SLU. Then it got rolling again vs. Northern Iowa and Youngstown State before regressing at NDSU. It’s gut-check time for SDSU’s offense to see if it’ll be good enough for the Jacks to win a third national title in a row.
Last week, I picked NDSU over SDSU and cited that in an even matchup, the home crowd and NDSU playing with an edge will give the Bison a close win. That’s how I feel about this game too. USD has the talent to match up well with SDSU. But a sold-out crowd and a motivated Jackrabbit squad will be on a mission. I expect a clean performance by the Jacks in all three phases after the team watched the film and likely feels they should have won last week.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology 2.0
Prediction: SDSU 31-21
No. 24 Western Carolina at No. 14 Mercer
Another very intriguing game.
WCU is on a heater, winning three in a row to sit at 4-3 overall and 3-0 in the SoCon. Mercer got bumped out of the Top 10 after suffering its first loss last week at Samford, 55-35. The 55 points is a jarring number considering Mercer had shown an elite defense all season. Although Mercer’s offense collapsed early and gave Samford several short fields due to turnovers. Samford scored 28 points off of turnovers, plus two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
The Bears now have to contend with a WCU offense that just scored 52 points on Furman in a 52-20 win. Cole Gonzales went 35/55 for 620 yards and five TDs, breaking the SoCon single-game record for passing yards.
I don’t know how successful either rushing attack will be in this one. Mercer still owns the No. 1 rushing defense, allowing 41.3 yards per game. WCU’s defense is very athletic and looks to slow down a Mercer rushing attack that cooled off last week, mustering only 39 yards on 34 attempts.
So it’ll come down to the quarterbacks. Mercer’s starter DJ Smith went down again last week with an injury. I’m not sure if the Bears can go shot-for-shot with Gonzales and get into that type of ball game. But Gonzales taking care of the football is also a question mark. When he’s on, the dude can sling it as good as anyone in the FCS. He can also be careless.
Gonzales has thrown for 2,148 yards, 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He had a 4:7 TD:INT ratio in the first five games, but he hasn’t thrown a pick in the last two contests while tossing six touchdowns. Mercer leads the FCS with 16 interceptions, led by five from both Myles Redding and TJ Moore.
I’ve flip-flopped on this pick throughout the week, but I think Mercer can get back on track. The 55 points may be an anomaly as that was more on the offense than the defense. Gonzales will have to air it out for WCU to get a win. And that lends its hand to Mercer’s defense getting pressure and forcing a turnover or two to seal the game.
Prediction: Mercer 21-17
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
No. 10 UIW at Southeastern Louisiana
A key game in the Southland Conference.
UIW is 2-0 in the standings and 5-2 overall. SLU has turned things around, sitting at 3-0 in the standings, 4-4 overall, and 4-2 vs. the FCS. The Lions just beat SFA, they beat an Eastern Washington team that is now giving top Big Sky squads trouble, and they only lost to Tarleton State 36-33, a team that is now ranked in the Top 10.
As teams have come and gone in the FCS Top 10, UIW looks to keep moving up the polls and position itself for a first-round bye. An issue on its playoff resume is there may be no ranked wins. So the style of wins will be important. Defeating SLU will be a quality win for the Cardinals.
UIW, behind the arm of Zach Calzada, has the No. 12 passing offense in the FCS, averaging 272.7 passing yards per game. He’ll need to make big throws for the Cardinals to get this key road win.
Prediction: UIW 34-24
Maine at No. 15 Rhode Island
Rhody made a statement last week, remaining undefeated vs. the FCS by beating No. 24 New Hampshire 26-9 for its first ranked win. At six victories already, the Rams are in a good spot to reach the postseason for the first time since the 1980s.
But Maine all of a sudden is no team to mess with. The Black Bears are 4-3 after routing No. 5 Villanova 35-7. Maine’s defense was flying around, limiting Nova to 35 rushing yards on 28 attempts while recording seven sacks. Carter Peevy, last year’s starter at Mercer, has played well this fall, throwing for 1,312 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Rhode Island doesn’t wow you in any statistical category. But the Rams just keep finding ways to win. Watch for Malik Grant, a former FCS All-American at Sacred Heart, to add another 100-yard game on the ground as Rhody adds another victory to the win column.
RELATED: Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked FCS Teams
Prediction: Rhode Island 28-21
North Alabama at No. 12 Central Arkansas
The last time we saw these two teams in action was two weeks ago. North Alabama got a signature win, beating No. 10 Abilene Christian 47-34 to improve to 3-5. Central Arkansas, meanwhile, scraped out a 34-33 win over West Georgia after losing 41-34 at ACU.
UNA’s offense has hit another gear with TJ Smith at quarterback, scoring 60 and 47 points in the last two games. Smith has thrown for 207 yards and four touchdowns and 220 yards and four TDs in those contests.
For UCA, the Bears were once ranked No. 5 nationally. The ACU loss coupled with narrowly beating West Georgia has knocked them back. They can still climb into a first-round bye, but they’ll have to survive the week-to-week parity in the UAC. The regular-season finale at Tarleton State especially looms large.
I’ll go with UCA for the win this Saturday behind the legs of ShunDerrick Powell, but it’s hard to pick any UAC game with a lot of confidence.
Prediction: Central Arkansas 35-31
More FCS Predictions
Gardner-Webb at No. 6 SEMO
Is SEMO on the clock? FCS teams have risen up, gotten hype put on them, and then lost — Central Arkansas, Abilene Christian, Mercer, Villanova. SEMO has yet to lose to an FCS team and nearly knocked off an FBS opponent as it has floated up the national polls. Will the Redhawks eventually get caught like the teams listed above? Possibly, but I don’t see it happening this week.
Prediction: SEMO 31-21
New Hampshire at No. 13 Villanova
Villanova hasn’t lived up to Top 5 preseason expectations. Another loss puts the Wildcats in jeopardy of falling even further. The team is too experienced to suffer back-to-back losses. They respond well with a home win here over a UNH team that just exited the polls.
Prediction: Villanova 24-21
No. 8 Tarleton State at Austin Peay
Tarleton State has yet to lose to an FCS team this fall. In their first year eligible for the FCS playoffs, the Texans eye a Top 8 seed and a first-round bye. Navigating a competitive UAC is a challenge, though, and a loss may come at some point. But Kayvon Britten and the Tarleton offense will be too much for an Austin Peay team that allows nearly 30 points per game.
Prediction: Tarleton State 35-17
Eastern Washington at No. 11 Idaho
Idaho has cooled off since its hot start. But the schedule eases up, and the Vandals could still secure a first-round bye if they win out and finish 9-3 with an FBS win and three ranked wins. The toughest challenge in the remaining four games might be this EWU squad. Despite being 2-5, the Eagles had competitive losses to Top 10 teams Montana and UC Davis. Idaho QB Jack Layne looks close to returning after breaking his collarbone in Week 1. It’ll be a needed spark for Idaho’s offense. Until then, the defense will need to continue testing its depth and play at a high level.
Prediction: Idaho 31-27