The chase for an FCS national championship continues this weekend in the quarterfinals of the 24-team bracket.
As we’ve done all season, let’s dive into these matchups and predict some scores.
RELATED: FCS Quarterfinal Odds
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 122-37
2023 Record: 96-42
FCS Quarterfinal Predictions
#8 Idaho at #1 Montana State
MSU ran roughshod over Idaho two months ago. It was a 38-7 final, but it could have been even worse. The Cats led 31-0 early in the third quarter, and Idaho didn’t get its first points until there were 43 seconds left in the game.
As Idaho head coach Jason Eck put it this week, “We are going to have to play a perfect game to pull this off.”
Playing a perfect game against this MSU team in front of this frenzied MSU fan base and sold-out crowd will be dang near impossible.
The Cats have been locked in all season. While they have the 1-0 mentality, give em truth serum and they’ll admit that they know this is the best chance for this program to win a national title in decades. Many of these seniors were big parts of the 2021 run to a national title game appearance and the 2022 semifinal run as freshmen and sophomores. They then experienced one of the biggest letdown seasons in 2023, exiting the playoffs in the second round in excruciating fashion, having the dynasty NDSU program on the ropes before losing on a blocked PAT.
One could argue how last season ended lit a match under this MSU program to fulfill its potential this year.
Idaho is healthier this time around. Layne is back, and the strong d-line is fresher. But it’s hard to see any team going into Bozeman and stopping this MSU team from getting back to Frisco.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
#5 UC Davis at #4 South Dakota
This looks to be a fantastic quarterfinal matchup, likely the best this weekend.
Both teams have great backfields, playmakers on the outside, and strong defenses. Which quarterback makes the bigger throws in big moments could be the difference. Both offenses, coincidentally, are around the Top 20 in third down conversion at 45%. Those will be money downs on Saturday.
The Yotes are so talented defensively. Yet opponents have seemed to find something in the last few games. North Dakota scored 36, NDSU scored 28, and Tarleton State scored 31 last week. Some of that is due to the game flow or unique schemes. But there is something there. And if there is an offensive coaching staff that can exploit the vulnerabilities, it is UC Davis, led by head coach Tim Plough.
USD is as well-rounded of a team as there is in the FCS, as evidenced by its win over NDSU and near win at SDSU. But there is just something about this UC Davis team. The pressure is on USD here. The Coyotes are at home and are considered an FCS title contender for the first time. UC Davis is the slight underdog and has a coolness yet confidence about them.
Davis matches up well with what USD wants to do offensively to keep this ball game tight on the road. And I think the Aggies can find ways to get their playmakers in space and have success. It’ll come down to the wire, and if UC Davis has a chance to tie or go for the win late in the game, I think the Aggies are going for the win.
Prediction: UC Davis 36-35 (OT)
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#6 UIW at #3 South Dakota State
UIW gave SDSU a legit scare earlier this year, pulling within a touchdown early in the fourth quarter before the Jackrabbits extended its lead again for a 45-24 win.
Saturday’s weather looks to be decent in Brookings, relatively speaking, with a high of 34 degrees and sunny. You’ll take that in mid-December. Although the game kicks at 11 a.m., so it’ll be chilly. We’ll see if UIW handles the cold elements better than the rainy elements last week.
It is hard to beat a team twice. But, perhaps the familiarity with UIW and the competitive September game helps SDSU. Or else it’d be easier to overlook an opponent and have your mind on a potential (and likely) semifinal trip to Fargo.
The Jacks will be locked in. And they have been locked in for the last month and change. Alongside Montana State, SDSU looks like the most complete team in the FCS right now. There’s a reason they share the same odds to win the national title, slightly ahead of NDSU. SDSU is humming on offense after a choppy start — o-line has dominated, running backs are loaded, and Gronowski looks like his 2023 Walter Payton Award self. And SDSU’s defense, as mentioned above, is playing at around the same level as last year’s historic unit.
It’s hard to see how UIW wins this game without SDSU doing multiple self-inflicted things (penalties, turnovers, blown coverages, etc.). I expect a clean performance by the Jacks and a three-score lead by the game’s end.
Prediction: SDSU 38-17
RELATED: Odds To Win The FCS National Championship
#7 Mercer at #2 North Dakota State
NDSU head coach Tim Polasek sent a message to his players, and probably to the Bison fan base, this week at his press conference.
When asked about NDSU’s slow starts in the last two games, he said, “I think we’re looking ahead. Like it’s not big enough for us. It’s not big enough for anybody just to be in a quarterfinal game … or the second round of the playoffs. It is damn big enough. It is. And that’s gotta be the main focus. It’s the Super Bowl is this weekend. And it’s Mercer, and we’re zeroed in.”
It’s a great perspective.
NDSU is so accustomed to making deep playoff runs, reaching the quarterfinals for the 15th straight season to be exact, that it’s almost just assumed the Bison will coast to the semifinals before getting challenged. On the flip side, Mercer is absolutely ecstatic to be playing on national TV and in the FCS quarterfinals for the first time ever.
It’s a good reminder that — as some call for the FCS playoff bracket to shrink because it’s the same usual teams in the semifinals and Frisco — playing in the first round, second round, or quarterfinals is a damn big deal for a lot of programs.
It feels like the Bison will come out cleaner and more focused compared to last week. And Mercer offensively just doesn’t match up well with NDSU. For non-MVFC teams, it’s easier to go around NDSU’s defense than through it, and Mercer’s offense isn’t built like ACU’s. It’s built more on physicality than speed. And while that’s the right formula, it is hard for most to out-Bison the Bison.
I’m interested to see how Mercer’s rushing defense stacks up. UT Martin, statistically at least, had the No. 5 FCS rushing defense, allowing 84.9 yards per game. Last week, Montana State went for 201 yards on the ground vs. UT Martin along with 300 yards passing. There are levels to this stuff.
I think the Bears could give NDSU’s rushing attack some trouble, but Miller’s arm will be the difference here. The Bison may pop several explosive plays over the top to pull away in the second half.
Prediction: NDSU 31-10
