After going 12-1 in non-conference play, Furman was hot going into league play. The Paladins’ only non-con loss came at then top-ranked Kansas and they had decent wins over Belmont, Tulane, and Princeton.
Since then, Furman has gone 4-4 in Southern Conference play and is sixth in the conference standings. The Paladins are coming off a 79-74 victory over Mercer on Saturday.
Samford (17-4, 7-1) sits alone at the top of the SoCon. The Bulldogs’ only league loss came at home to ETSU, and their other three losses were to Arizona, Michigan State, and a two-point defeat at Cornell.
The Bulldogs are the team to beat in the conference right now, so Furman enters this one with a big opportunity.
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Samford at Furman Betting Odds
Samford is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Furman while the Over/Under is 150.5 points.
The Moneyline for Samford is at -110 and at -105 for Furman.
Samford at Furman On TV
The matchup between Samford and Furman will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Samford at Furman Prediction
I predict Samford wins as a short road favorite. I also predict this game goes over 150.5 points.
For as good as the Bulldogs’ offense has been this season, their defense has really turned it on late. That’s what allowed them to overcome a second-half deficit over Chattanooga last week and pick up a 16-point win over Wofford on Saturday.
They’re allowing 65 points per game over their last three, which is somewhat surprising considering how fast-paced their games are and how often they foul — often sending opponents to the free-throw line.
Per KenPom, in SoCon games, Samford has a defensive efficiency of 97.5, allows an effective field-goal percentage of 47.7%, and forces a turnover on 21.3% of opponents’ possessions. These all rank first in the league. They force 16.4 turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the country.
The Bulldogs haven’t eclipsed 80 points since Jan. 6 (six games). Yet, they’re still leading the league with 84.4 PPG and are sixth in the country with 10.9 triples made per game.
Samford enjoys playing fast and trying to speed up its opponents, and Rylan Jones is the spark plug that makes this all happen. He is averaging 10.7 points, 5.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. The 6-foot guard is one of those players teams hate playing against.
Jaden Brownell and Trey Fort chip in with 14.6 and 14 PPG, while Collin Holloway averages 10.5 points and 5.6 RPG.
The good thing for Furman is that it doesn’t turn the ball over often, averaging just 11.1 per game. The Dins’ defense has also been good this season, surrendering 68 PPG. However, it has been a little unsteady in league play and is giving up 74.9 PPG against SoCon opponents. They also allow conference foes to shoot 37% from the outside.
Furman can also knock down 3s, though. The Paladins shoot 30 treys a game, which is 13th most in the country — Samford is 20th with 28.9/game — and the Paladins knock down 33% of them. They’re a great cutting offense and can pass the ball really well (17 assists/game). These things will be critical against a Samford defense that applies a ton of pressure.
PJay Smith Jr. leads the Paladins and is fourth in the conference with 16.6 PPG and 3.3 APG while Nick Anderson is the only other double-digit scorer, averaging 12.7 PPG.
Furman has some of the tools needed to knock off Samford, but I think the Bulldogs’ energy and pressure will be too much in the end.
Samford is 3-6 against the spread on the road but Furman is 3-5 ATS at home. The over has gone 1-9 in the Bulldogs’ last 10 games, but I expect plenty of 3s to be flying here and for this trend to start to balance out.
