For the third consecutive week, the Group of Five Underdog of the Week didn’t just cover the spread, but won outright.
New Mexico State took an early lead on a pick-six from Dylan Early and never trailed, knocking off Middle Tennessee as last week’s selection. College football betting odds had the Aggies as 3.5-point underdogs.
This week I’ll go to the MAC to try and end the regular season on a high note.
Eastern Michigan (spread +7, moneyline +220) at Western Michigan
Both of these teams are hungry for a win, especially EMU.
The Eagles are on a four-game losing streak and haven’t won since Oct. 19. They were once 5-2 and soaring high but are now 5-6 and are fighting for bowl-eligibility.
In the last two weeks, EMU has struggled to get anything going with its rushing attack. Earlier in the season, the Eagles were finding a lot of success on the ground behind the duo of Elijah Jackson-Anderson and Delbert Mimms III. EMU runs the ball much better in wins compared to losses.
The Eagles should have the opportunity to get back on track against a WMU defense that ranks second-to-last in the conference and is allowing 184 rushing yards per game. The Broncos are surrendering 216 rushing YPG during their current three-game losing streak.
WMU is the top scoring offense in the league (28.1 points per game), but the Eagles’ defense is average and I think is good enough to keep them in this game.
The Eagles are coming off a 37-20 loss to Buffalo, but the game was much closer than the score suggests. Buffalo linebacker Shaun Dolac iced the game with a pick-six late in the fourth quarter.
WMU is also bowl hunting and will no doubt show up ready to play, but I think EMU will as well.
The Eagles have covered the spread in the last three meetings in Kalamazoo. They are 7-4 against the spread this season and 4-2 as an underdog. WMU is 4-7 ATS.
Honorable Mentions
Central Michigan (+12.5, +400) at Northern Illinois
After a 40-year career, Chippewas head coach Jim McElwain is retiring from coaching and will coach his final game Saturday at Huskies Stadium. I don’t think there’s any way the Chippewas don’t give it their all to send McElwain out with a victory.
The Chippewas finally picked up a win last week over Western Michigan to snap a five-game losing streak and played with a ton of pride in the battle for the Victory Cannon. I like last week’s energy to carry into this week and keep it close against an NIU team that has been inconsistent for most of the season.
CMU is 4-3 ATS as an underdog while the Huskies are 1-4-1 as a favorite and 1-3-1 at home.
UTSA (+7, +235) at Army
The tides have turned for the Roadrunners, who are finally playing like the Jeff Traylor teams we’re used to seeing.
UTSA has won four out of its last five, including a victory over Memphis. The offense has found its rhythm, and Roadrunners quarterback Owen McCown has taken his play up a notch.
I imagine Army is frustrated following last week’s loss to Notre Dame, but it was only the second FBS team the Black Knights have played this season with a current winning record.
The Roadrunners are playing their best football of the season right now, and I expect them to be physical enough to keep this within one possession in this AAC matchup.
Temple (+11, +340) vs. North Texas
The future of Temple football looks murky, but I think the Owls are still committed to finishing the season strong.
UNT’s morale might be even lower than Temple’s after losing its fifth game in a row last week. The Mean Green were 5-1 but the season has spiraled. They still have a shot to clinch a bowl bid, and they’re likely to come out with a win, but I don’t think it’ll be that easy.
UNT hasn’t covered the spread in its last four games, and the Owls are 4-1 against the spread as an underdog.
