The college football season is here. And for Group of Five teams, the battle to win their respective league and make it to the College Football Playoff has been exciting to keep track of.
Here are some against the spread and Over/Under predictions for G5 teams this week.
Upset of The Week: Washington State vs. Fresno State Prediction
I predict Fresno State will win and cover the spread at +3.5. I also project the game will go Under 61.5 total points.
It hasn’t always been obvious, but I believe Fresno State’s defense is a lot better than people might give it credit for. Though their performance against UNLV wasn’t great, the Bulldogs had allowed just 21 points in their previous two games. I’m anticipating that unit to bounce back at home.
And while Washington State is 4-1, I think Boise State exposed some of the Cougars’ weaknesses a couple weeks ago. While WSU did have a bye to prepare for this matchup, I think Fresno State’s offense will do just enough to help the Bulldogs earn an upset victory.
Boise State vs. Hawaii Prediction
I project Boise State will win and cover the spread at -20.5. I also project the game will go Over 59.5 total points.
I realize this game might not be as easy as some might think. Making the trip to Hawaii could be a challenge, and although the Rainbow Warriors are 2-3 overall, they’ve played in close games against UCLA and San Diego State.
But as shown against Utah State, I believe Boise State isn’t a team to mess around and let games get close when they shouldn’t be. I’m anticipating Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty will have another fantastic outing. And while Hawaii’s passing offense might help the Rainbow Warriors put up a few points, I expect Boise State’s defense to play well enough for the Broncos to win by more than 20.
Coastal Carolina vs. JMU Prediction
I predict JMU will win but Coastal Carolina will cover the spread at +9.5. I also project the game will go Under 61.5 total points.
JMU is the better team, in my mind, which is why I think the Dukes will win. But they’ve also been in unnecessarily close games, so I don’t think Coastal Carolina is looking at a blowout loss, either.
Coastal Carolina is 4-1, with its only loss being against Virginia, for a reason. The Chanticleers have scored 40 or more points in three of their five games, and their defense has often done enough to set them up for wins.
But JMU’s defense, I expect, will have an answer for CCU. Aside from North Carolina, JMU hasn’t allowed anyone to score more than 21 points and has given up just over 10 points per game to their four other opponents. The Dukes should be disciplined and stout on that side of the ball once again.
The key for JMU, as has been the case all season, will be quarterback Alonza Barnett III. He hasn’t been consistent, but I think he’ll shine in this matchup and lead the Dukes to a win.
UNLV vs. Utah State Prediction
I predict UNLV will win and cover the spread at -18.5. I also project the game will go Under 65.5 total points.
I believe this will prove to be a “get right” game for the Rebels. Not that UNLV even needs such a game. The loss to Syracuse in OT wasn’t that bad.
But the Rebels have high aspirations for this season, and I think a blowout win over Utah State would help their case for the CFP.
Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped in at quarterback for the Rebels and has done a phenomenal job. I think USU’s defense will have a difficult time limiting him through the air or on the ground.
I also think UNLV’s defense is one of the better units in the G5. I don’t expect the Aggies to be scoring much in this contest, which should ultimately set UNLV up for a decisive win.
Toledo vs. Buffalo Prediction
I predict Toledo will win and cover the spread at -9.5. I also project the game will go Over 44.5 total points.
Buffalo has surprised some people up until this point. The Bulls are 3-2 overall and beat Northern Illinois, which was ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 at the time. They could be in contention for a MAC Championship appearance by the end of the season.
But Toledo is clearly the better team in my mind. The Rockets are well-rounded, and I think their loss to Western Kentucky will prove to be a fluke as they continue to dominate against MAC teams.
They’ve scored at least 30 points in four of their five contests this year. I think they continue to score at a high rate and beat Buffalo by at least two touchdowns.