Ranked at No. 15 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25, Boise State remains in a prime position to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. But as a Group of Five team, the Broncos don’t have much room for error.
They need to keep winning in Mountain West play, which means their game tonight is crucial. Boise State, which is 6-1 overall and 3-0 against MW teams, hosts San Diego State, which is 3-4 but is 2-0 in conference play.
Boise State will need to continue to play well against the Aztecs, which have hopes of making a bowl game and even have an outside shot of making the Mountain West Championship. The Broncos cannot afford to take this game off.
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San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Odds
San Diego State is a +24.5 college football betting odds underdog against Boise State, with the Over/Under being 55.5.
The moneyline for San Diego State is +1200, while it’s -3000 for Boise State.
San Diego State vs. Boise State On TV
The matchup between San Diego State and Boise State will be televised on FS1.
The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 1. The contest is taking place at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction
I predict Boise State will win but SDSU will cover the spread at +24.5. I also project this game will go Over 55.5 total points.
I imagine Boise State’s offense will continue to score plenty of points in this matchup. After rushing for 128 yards against UNLV last week, which was one yard more than his season low, Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty will want to put together a standout performance in this contest.
And I believe he’ll do just that. SDSU ranks 86th in the country with 159.6 rushing yards allowed per game and gives up 4 yards per rushing attempt. This Aztecs defense has been vulnerable against strong rushing attacks this season, and Jeanty is the best running back in the nation right now.
Boise State is third in the FBS with 44.3 points per game, and SDSU is tied for 66th in scoring defense with 23.57 points per game allowed. The Broncos’ game plan should be clear: Continue that offensive production by running the ball often.
But I don’t think the Aztecs are as bad as their 3-4 overall record makes them look. They haven’t lost to anyone by more than 21 points all season, and that includes games against Oregon State, No. 22-ranked Washington State, and Cal. They’ve managed to keep some games close.
They’re also capable of putting up some points. They’ve scored at least 26 in each of their last three outings. And Boise State has given up 24 or more points in three of its last four contests, so I could see SDSU making this a two-possession game, at least until the fourth quarter.
