Two of the top Group of Five teams from the state of Texas will be facing off in one of the last bowl games of the season.
Texas State entered the year with high expectations. Some believed the Bobcats could win the Sun Belt and maybe even compete for a CFP spot. And they appeared like they would contend for a league title after a 49-10 win over UTSA in their second game of 2024.
But then they lost in a couple of close matchups against Arizona State and Sam Houston, and while they did bounce back with blowout victories over Troy and Arkansas State, the Bobcats followed that with two losses against Old Dominion and Louisiana. They won three of their final four regular season contests, but a 7-5 record with a 5-3 mark in conference play wasn’t enough to compete for a Sun Belt Championship.
Meanwhile, North Texas didn’t face as much external pressure going into the year but rose up the G5 rankings quickly. The Mean Green won five of their first six games with their only loss being at Texas Tech.
Then they faced a daunting conference slate and lost to Memphis, Tulane, and Army all by 11 points or less. They finished the regular season 6-6, but that was still enough for UNT to earn bowl-eligibility.
The Mean Green could even end the year with a winning record if they prevail against Texas State in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl.
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North Texas vs. Texas State Betting Odds
North Texas is a +14 college football betting odds underdog against Texas State, with the Over/Under being 65.5.
The moneyline for North Texas is +425, while it’s -600 for Texas State.
North Texas vs. Texas State On TV
The matchup between North Texas and Texas State will be televised on ESPN.
The game will kick off at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 3. The contest is taking place at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.
North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction
I predict Texas State will win but North Texas will cover the spread at +14. I also project the game will go Over 65.5 total points.
Both of these offenses have been incredible this season, so I don’t think it’s out of the question that they both score 35-plus points here.
Texas State was fifth in the country in total offense (474.3 yards per game) and seventh in scoring offense (37.1 points per game). North Texas was third (488.7 yards per game) and 23rd (34 points per game) in those categories, respectively.
But Texas State’s defense, which hasn’t been perfect by any means, has been better than the Mean Green’s. The Bobcats ranked 60th in points per game allowed (24.3) and 46th in yards per game allowed (346.5) in the FBS in 2024. Meanwhile, UNT allowed 456.6 yards and 34.5 points per game. Both of those marks were among the bottom 15 teams in the nation.
So with that in mind, I expect Texas State’s defense will make just enough plays for the Bobcats to triumph in a high-scoring contest.
