Well, there's no arguing about who the FCS preseason No. 1 team is this year.
With loads of talent and experience coming back from a 16-0 team, North Dakota State should be the unanimous top team in the preseason polls. But for the first time in a few years, the debate is about who the No. 2 team is.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
For the 2017, 2018 and 2019 preseason polls, it was always "who's the No. 3 team behind NDSU/JMU or JMU/NDSU?" Now, the No. 2 spot is up for debate as the Dukes face offseason question marks after losing a damn good senior class from a team that was right there with the Bison in the national title game.
HERO Sports' Top 25 poll comes out Wednesday, May 27, which will be a combination of mine and Brian's rankings. There are several teams with legitimate arguments to be No. 2. But there are also arguments going against these teams.
Let's break down those arguments/counterarguments here:
[divider]
Teams in alphabetical order
Illinois State
Argument For: The Redbirds were playing out of their minds defensively late last season. And they had to with the offense being one-dimensional due to a season-ending injury to quarterback Brady Davis and a banged-up WR group. Had they had just a little more firepower offensively, the Redbirds very well could have knocked off NDSU in the quarterfinals.
A majority of that defense is back, along with Davis and his favorite targets. The loss of workhorse All-American RB James Robinson hurts, but ISU always has talent at that position and the offensive line remains mostly intact.
The Redbirds made a run to the national title game in 2014. Things have been up-and-down since then, but they finally lived up to high preseason hype in 2019. Last year may be a stepping stone for a huge 2020 season.
Argument Against: The ISU offense couldn't catch a break in 2019. Top receivers Taylor Grimes and Andrew Edgar were injured early in the season. Then as Edgar was making his way back, Davis tore his ACL in mid-November. But even at full health in the 2020 season, without Robinson it's hard to put a lot of trust in the offense.
Davis regressed in 2019, throwing nine touchdowns and nine interceptions in 11 games compared to 19 touchdowns and five interceptions in 10 games the year prior. Again, the WR injuries didn't help with that.
And Robinson quite literally put the offense on his back behind a strong offensive line to win two playoff games. The offense won't need to score a lot of points to win ball games in 2020. But if ISU wants to go from a quarterfinal team to playing in the national title game, it will need to be more explosive.
[divider]
James Madison
Argument For: In the last four seasons, JMU won a national title, was a game-winning drive away from winning another, suffered a humbling loss in the second round at Colgate and then was three yards away from scoring and having a shot at a 2-point conversion to send last year's national title game against NDSU into overtime. They have been able to reload in a way that not many FCS programs are capable of.
This year will be the most challenging yet. JMU loses NFL Draft pick at QB Ben DiNucci, its top three pass-catchers and 52 percent of its tackling production, including two All-American defensive ends, two All-American defensive backs and the two starting linebackers, one of which was an All-American.
But talent remains. And unproven talent is on the roster. JMU has brought in some of the best FCS recruiting classes in recent years. Those players will have to step up. The Dukes will still have a strong defense by FCS standards. It just may not be a dominant one.
And offensively, expect JMU to have an elite rushing attack. The entire RB room is back along with three starting offensive linemen.
Argument Against: The second paragraph above really sticks out. There's just a massive amount of talent needing to be replaced. Is the QB play going to be good enough to remain a national title threat? Are the outside weapons good enough? How does JMU replace six All-Conference defensive players?
The Dukes will make the playoffs in 2020. They may even be a seed. But a lot of questions need to be answered before a return trip to Frisco happens.
JMU lost a talented senior class from the 2017 season and 2018 was up-and-down, ending with a loss in the second round. This is a bigger rebuilding/reloading test than 2018.
[divider]
Montana
Argument For: Bobby Hauck returned to coach the Grizzlies with the task of getting the prideful program to look like Montana Football again. In just Year 2 of turning the culture and style of play around, the Griz were in the quarterfinals and nearly made a trip to the semifinals.
The talent returning is eye-opening.
WRs Samori Toure and Samuel Akem, RB Marcus Knight, LB Jace Lewis and safety Robby Hauck are some of the best at their positions in the FCS. Lewis will fill that Dante Olson role of racking up every tackle on the field. And replacing Dalton Sneed at QB will be tough, but Cam Humphrey played well when Sneed was hurt for a few games last year. He's the front runner to win that starting job and has tremendous weapons around him.
The Griz were a year ahead of schedule last season. And things are quickly building into Montana being among the FCS elite once again.
Argument Against: The Montana offensive and defensive lines just aren't where they need to be. The struggles the Griz had on the o-line in 2018 were well-document, and improvements happened in 2019. But there's still progress to be made.
The defensive line is an issue to me. I understand the Griz run an unconventional defense with different fronts that don't require a ton of beef up there, but that unit needs to get bigger and more physical for this team to be a national title contender. If the Griz played NDSU or JMU in the 2019 playoffs, the Bison and Dukes probably would have run for 500 yards.
Montana is absolutely loaded with talent at the skilled positions on offense and the backers/backs on defense. But all of that means nothing if you can't win the line of scrimmage (or at least hold your own) late in the playoffs.
[divider]
Montana State
Argument For: I took a trip to Bozeman last year and came away saying this program has everything it needs to be an annual national title contender. MSU ended up making a run to the semifinals in 2019, but the gap between the Bobcats and NDSU remained monstrous with the Bison winning 42-14.
The missing piece for MSU has been strong quarterback play and the ability to keep a defense honest. Hell, even when opponents knew the Bobcats were going to run, they were still one of the best rushing teams in the FCS. But to take that next step, offensive balance is needed. NC State transfer Matt McKay will get his shot to win that QB1 spot.
The running game will still be fantastic. Four starting offensive linemen are back along with healthy versions of Isaiah Ifanse and Troy Andersen. MSU loses half of its tackling production, but the program prides itself on its defense and should be solid once again. If the Bobcats can get their starting QB to play at an All-Conference level (someone who isn't all-conference strictly because of their running ability), this is going to be a dangerous team.
Argument Against: There is a very cynical way you can view MSU's 2019 season. And this "argument against" section is all about being cynical. And a fair question to ask is were the Bobcats really a Top 4 team in the FCS last year, even if they made the semifinals? The Bobcats no doubt got a good draw, especially in the quarterfinals when unseeded Austin Peay flew across the country after beating No. 4 seed Sacramento State, a team that beat MSU 34-21 in the regular season. Plus, Nicholls and Illinois State competed better with NDSU in the second round and quarterfinals than the Bobcats did.
Or you can look at it as the Bison were pissed off about how they performed in the first two rounds and took it out on MSU.
But the Bobcats were on a roll entering that semifinal game. The running game was dominating, Tucker Rovig looked comfortable at the quarterback position and the defense was playing like a top unit in the FCS. Yet the game against NDSU just wasn't even close. So it makes you wonder how far away the Bobcats really are from competing for a national title.
Not only does the QB spot remain a question mark in 2020, but just 37.3 percent of the receiving yards are back. That's exactly where the Bobcats need to improve to take the next step.
[divider]
Northern Iowa
Argument For: Holy smokes do the Panthers have a talented roster coming back. Especially defensively. I mean we're talking about All-Americans on all three levels of the defense. We're probably looking at the best defense in the FCS this year. And that unit shined when it battled James Madison in the quarterfinals. Now it should be even better.
Expect improvements on a shaky offense. Will McElvain was solid as a freshman, but he does need to take a big step forward. He'll have one of the best WRs to work with in Isaiah Weston. Plus, UNI returns 60 percent of its rushing yards behind an OL with four starters back.
The Panthers need to set themselves up for a lengthy playoff run by playing well in September. Their first four games are at Iowa, at Idaho State, vs. Weber State and vs. NDSU. UNI has as talented of a team as anyone in the FCS. The offense just needs to click and complement the defense.
Argument Against: And that's really where the concern lies with UNI, is the offense. The unit battled injuries late in the season as it averaged just 10 points a game in the playoffs. Even throughout the season, it was still never really an offense that a good FCS defense feared, averaging 21 points a game, which ranked 98th in the FCS.
McElvain was good, but not great, throwing for 2,778 yards, 20 TDs and seven interceptions with a 53.1 completion percentage. The offensive line allowed 33 sacks, ranking 65th in the FCS and the running backs lacked explosion as the 110.9 rushing yards per game was 104th in the FCS.
While UNI's defense may be the best in the FCS in 2020, there's a massive question mark about this offense. In the quarterfinals, JMU led just 10-0 for most of the game, yet there was zero worry that the Dukes were going to lose. UNI mustered just 114 total yards in the 17-0 loss.
The Panthers will win a lot of games if the offense can average 24 points a game, which is neither great nor terrible. But to reach the national championship game, it'll need to be better than an average offense.
[divider]
Sacramento State
Argument For: The Hornets had one of the best turnarounds in recent FCS memory last year, going from 2-8 overall and 0-7 in the Big Sky to 9-4 overall and 7-1. They earned the No. 4 playoff seed, but the season ended in massive disappointment when unseeded Austin Peay took it to Sac State in the second round, winning 42-28 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.
The team cooled off during the second half of the season. A lot of that can be attributed to QB Kevin Thomson, a Walter Payton Award finalist, getting hurt and never looking like he fully recovered. The Hornets were also in a position they have never been in before with a target on their back.
With what the Hornets have coming back and the experience of losing right away in the playoffs, they should be viewed as a top team in the country. Thomson returns along with 93.3 percent of the rushing yards, 97.1 percent of the receiving yards and 58.4 percent of the tackling production.
Argument Against: How the season ended is enough to pause a little bit on the Hornets. Austin Peay led 35-7 at one point in what was an awful showing by Sac State. The team also narrowly defeated Northern Arizona and UC Davis in November, two non-playoff teams.
Thomson has had troubles with injuries during his career. When he missed games or was noticeably not at 100 percent, the Hornets were a different team.
Is Sac State ready to step into Tier 1 of the FCS? Or was the playoff loss too big of a red flag?
[divider]
South Dakota State
Argument For: The Jackrabbits were really only at full strength in the season-opener, a close loss to the best team Minnesota has had in years. Starting quarterback J'Bore Gibbs suffered two different injuries, the latter being a season-ender after looking great for a quarter against NDSU. Arguably the best running back in the FCS Pierre Strong Jr. got hurt mid-November and didn't return as SDSU went on to lose right away in the second round of the playoffs.
Where in past years it was the defense that disappointed late in the season, the 2019 unit was lights out and kept the Jacks in games, ranking sixth in the FCS with 16.7 points allowed per game. Nine of 11 starters are back on defense.
And as far as the offense, it can get back to its high-scoring ways if it can stay healthy. Gibbs, who seems likely to win the open battle for the starting spot, and Strong are back. Cade Johnson is a top WR in the FCS. And the offensive line has four returners with solid starting experience.
If the offense stays at full strength to complement the defense, this is the most balanced team on this list.
Argument Against: Ya know, Sam Houston State gets a lot of crap about how it's exited the playoffs from 2014-2017. But you don't hear as much crap from FCS fans for SDSU, whose playoff exits look like this: 36-10 loss to NDSU in the 2016 quarterfinals, 51-16 loss to JMU in the 2017 semifinals, 44-21 loss to NDSU in the 2018 semifinals and a 13-10 loss to unseeded UNI in the 2019 second round.
The Jacks have turned a corner as a program. Yet right when they seem to be over the hump, they bow out of the playoffs in ugly fashion. SDSU is getting closer to competing for a national title, but it still might be far away.
Whether it was injuries, the inconsistencies of the offensive line or an odd fumbling problem that didn't go away, the 2019 SDSU offense was tough to watch at times. Like many offenses in this article, that unit needs to get better.
[divider]
Villanova
Argument For: Villanova began the 2019 season 6-0 before injuries began to take their toll. It's been the same storyline with the Wildcats for multiple years now: a promising stop detailed by the injury bug.
If they can stay healthy, the Wildcats have one of the most experienced teams returning. Daniel Smith is a terrific quarterback and he has all five starting OL back, 80 percent of the receiving yards back and 99.8 percent of the rushing yards returning, including Justin Covington, who led the FCS in rushing until suffering a season-ending injury. A majority of the defense is back as well after allowing 26.1 PPG.
With the holes JMU has to fill, the CAA title could be Nova's to grab. And the CAA champion deserves a seed, meaning the Wildcats have the opportunity to set themselves up for a long playoff run.
Argument Against: It's tough to gauge the Wildcats. They've been highly viewed in past offseasons and have never lived up to the hype because of injuries. Do you chalk that up as bad luck? Or do you just eventually say "alright we need to see this team actually do something for a full season for once."
The pieces are in place for Nova to have a great season. Depth has been built because of these injuries. And the recent recruiting classes have been strong. But it seems premature to hoist the Wildcats too far up in preseason polls.
[divider]
Weber State
Argument For: The Wildcats return more than 90 percent of their rushing yards, receiving yards and points scored along with nearly 80 percent of their tackling production coming off of a semifinal appearance. The team is loaded for another deep playoff run.
Starting quarterback Jake Constantine transferring out doesn't do much for me. He was a good quarterback that won a lot of games. But Constantine wasn't going to beat an NDSU or JMU-level defense. At the same time, he was the starter for a reason and was the best option the Wildcats had, which makes you wonder about that position even more heading into 2020.
Weber has been on an impressive build these last few seasons. It has established itself as a top FCS program with three straight deep playoff runs. Last year was thought to be a bit of a rebuilding season with a lot of starters to replace, but the Wildcats got better instead of getting worse. With the number of starters returning (17 on offense and defense), 2020 could be the breakthrough year.
Argument Against: Here we are again in this section with unreliable offenses.
The semifinal game against JMU was decently competitive, with the Wildcats being within two possessions for most of the game. But still, no one really ever thought Weber was going to win that game at any point because the offense had zero threat against JMU's defense.
The offense is just missing something. It has good depth at the RB spot, led by All-American Josh Davis. There are explosive athletes in the passing attack like Devon Cooley and Rashid Shaheed. The offensive line has had All-Conference talent.
Like a lot of teams on this list, it comes down to QB play.
[divider]
NEXT: The Best FCS Players by Jersey Number
Listen to the latest episodes of B-Mac and Herd's FCS Podcast, which is also available on Apple Podcasts, iTunes, Spotify, iHeart, Stitcher and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: B-Mac and Herd's FCS Podcast
