No. 2 Montana hosts No. 3 Montana State this week in a ranked FCS matchup. A day before Selection Sunday, the playoff implications are huge.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Montana vs. Montana State On TV
The matchup between Montana and Montana State airs on Montana Television Network stations around the state and on ESPN+.
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. CT on Saturday, Nov. 22. It takes place at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Missoula, Montana.
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Montana vs. Montana State Preview
Montana State is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins over Northern Arizona and UC Davis. Montana is 11-0 with 10 D1 wins, featuring one currently-ranked win over North Dakota.
The winner on Saturday should earn the No. 2 seed and secure home-field advantage. The loser has a good shot to remain in the Top 4 seeds, potentially even the No. 3 seed, although a 9-3 Montana State team could potentially drop further than an 11-1 Montana team. The final-score margin could be a factor in how far the loser drops.
For a more detailed look at the seeding implications, check out this article.
The home team has dominated the Brawl of the Wild in every matchup dating back to 2019. Part of that is because the home team has been very good that year. Another reason is just the overwhelming environment for the visitors. Pound-for-pound, this is as heated a college football rivalry as any other. Not only is it hard to hear yourself speak or think offensively on the field, but it can be difficult to communicate with teammates and coaches or concentrate on in-game adjustments when you have fans hovering right above you trying to get into your head.
Things have snowballed quickly for the away team.
With that said, it seems we’re set for the closest game in a while. Montana State has looked like the more complete team than Montana and has played with more consistency. The Bobcats look better on the lines as well. Does that even out the home-field advantage?
Montana’s defense has been gettable this year. But a home crowd in a rivalry game like this can take their play to another level, where they are feeding off of that energy. Justin Lamson (2,170 passing yards, 19 TDs, two INT, 509 rush yards, 10 TDs) has been excellent at quarterback for MSU this season after transferring from Stanford. Is he ready for this game? You can prepare mentally and physically as well as you can, but until he’s in it, we don’t know how he’ll react to that stage. Poised and accurate? Or tight and erratic?
The Griz look to stop MSU’s strong rushing attack and put the Cats in passing situations. And then the blitz-heavy pressure comes while the decibels reach a new level on third down.
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On the flipside, when Montana gets going offensively, it can roll as well as any team in the country. The combination of Keali’i Ah Yat, Eli Gillman, Michael Wortham, and Brooks Davis can make a defense hurt in a multitude of ways. And their playmaking abilities make up for an OK offensive line. Gillman has rushed for 1,129 yards (No. 7 in the FCS) and 16 scores. Ah Yat is No. 3 in FCS passing yards (2,968). And Wortham is No. 3 in all-purpose yards per game (155.36).
They’ll go up against a top-tier defense that has impressive depth, speed, and tackling abilities. The Cats are allowing 16.2 points per game, ranking No. 8 in the FCS.
Montana State seems like the more popular pick, both in the spread and in some other predictions from FCS followers. I’m sticking with the home team here. It may take Lamson too long to settle in, and Montana is the type of team that seems to avalanche you when they seize that momentum. And in the best environment in the FCS, it’s hard for the road team to take momentum fully back. I do expect a close game, but Montana’s quicker start is the difference.
Prediction: Montana 24-21
